Read more articles from Kent Thiesse

The 2008 June 30 USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks Report was much more anticipated than normal, given the very tight grain supply in the U.S. and the recent strong corn and soybean prices. Interestingly, the June 1 report showed total 2008 planted corn acres in the U.S. at 87.3 million acres, which is 2 million acres higher than the average estimates of the grain traders, and 1.3 million acres higher than the March 1 planting intentions. However, 2008 planted corn acres are still 7% lower than 2007 planted corn acres. The USDA report listed 2008 planted soybean acres at 74.5 million acres, and planted wheat acres at 63.5 million acres, which are both down slightly from the March 1 planting intentions.

The interesting part of the June 30 USDA report was the large increase in planted corn acreage for 2008, given the significant planting delays in much of the Midwest, and the severe flooding in Iowa, Illinois, and other States. It should be noted that the June 30 USDA report is based on crop conditions on June 1, and the planted acreage does not reflect harvested corn acreage. USDA did a secondary crop survey in late June to determine preliminary changes in harvested corn acreage for 2008. Based on those results, it would appear that an estimated 90.4% of corn acres will be harvested for grain in 2008, compared to a normal of 92.4% of corn acres, obviously reflecting the floods and excessive rainfall in many areas of the Midwest in early June. Similarly, based on the late June crop survey, the percent of planted soybean acreage to be harvested for 2008 was listed at 96.8%, compared to a normal of 98.7%.

Most of the adjustments in harvested corn and soybean acreage are in Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. The overall U.S. production impact from the reduction in harvested corn and soybean acres could be more significant, since most of the lost crop acres are in some of the best corn and soybean producing areas in the World. The August USDA Crop Production Report should provide a better analysis of the impacts of 2008 crop losses from flooding and excessive rainfall in May and early June.